Advances in the market; More concessions in banking sector
The Indian market is moving forward with a clear assessment. The finance ministry is confident that with the onset of monsoon clouds, inflation will remain in check.
There is a possibility of more concessions in the banking sector.
The us and european central banks are likely to be shocked by the reduction in the repo rate at the next meeting. Given the revival in the economic and industrial sector and the support from foreign investors, the Nifty is likely to touch the 20,000-mark in the current financial year.
The difference between the two is the rupee.
Judging by the movements in the forex market and the economic situation in neighbouring countries, the movement of the Indian rupee is surprising. Between January and June 4, the rupee traded in the range of 81.50-83.18 against the dollar. It was at 82.33 after weakening from 82.56 at the beginning of the week to 82.87 indicated in the previous week. If the rupee tries to strengthen this week, it could be interrupted at 82.10.
If the enthusiasm of foreign funds to infuse money into India continues into the second half of the year, there will be a surge in indices and share prices. Foreign operators invested Rs 43,838 crore in May. Foreign operators, who have withdrawn huge amounts of money from China, have launched it in the Japanese market. Investment has declined in March-April as The Hidenberg's arrow at Adani has, to a certain extent, dampened the confidence of foreign operators.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) may move at a higher level as the new GDP numbers reflect the sampad system. The excitement that the monsoon is likely to generate among investors may make rural and agriculture-related stocks noticeable.
At the same time, the second half of the monsoon may be weak due to the El Nino phenomenon. This means that the current bull rally may fade a bit after August but may flare up again in the run-up to Diwali.
Profiteering on Nifty.
Nifty and Nifty June futures are in almost the same range. It can be inferred that a section was forced to do short covering. There is a shortfall of two lakh contracts in the open interest. You can try a consolidation this week, even if you're in a bullish mood. As the Nifty jumped from 18,499 to 18,662, breaking the resistance by 18,604 points on one occasion, the operators were eager to make profits. Over the weekend, the Nifty is at 18,534 points.
This week, the defence can rise to 18,642 points. If the index falters, it is likely to be supported at 18,445 points. New buyers can come up with strong support at the 21-day moving average of 18,356. At the same time, if the resistance collapses at 18,642 points, the index could look at 18,750 points and 18,947 points in the bull rally in the second half of the month.
Sensex without wavering.
Although the Sensex jumped from 62,501 points to 63,036 points, breaking the resistance at 62,859 points, the market failed to maintain its gains as expected. Over the weekend, the Sensex was trading 178 points higher at 62,547. If the attempt to maintain the first support at 62,261 early today succeeds, the index could move to 62,934 points and then to 63,321 in the second half of the week.
Correction can continue until 61,975 if the first support is lost. Foreign funds raised shares worth Rs 6,519.7 crore in the previous week. Domestic funds also made a sale of Rs 1043 crore.
Fall in gold.
In the international market, when gold rose from $1946 to $1984 per troy ounce, the selling pressure dropped to the old level of $1946. Operators are monitoring the movements of the US central bank. The Fed may make new announcements on interest rates in the middle of the month.